Considering the Unthinkable

20060228

     This week has been a difficult one for Iraq and the world as the sectarian violence set off by the bombing of the al-Askari mosque threatens to destabilize the nation as it tries to form its first democratically elected government. In the ongoing violence, it is easy to see the fractures of a sectarian war- one some would incorrectly term a ‘civil war’- that could destroy Iraq altogether.

     While such a reality would be terribly tragic, it bears consideration, especially in the context of Iraq’s position in the wider Middle East and Muslim world. Iraq is unique because within its borders it brings together a heady mix of ethnic and religious divisions that represent the otherwise invisible tension that is the real Muslim world, so whatever conflict occurs in Iraq, be it a simple period of violence or a full-fledged war, represents the potential of that world.

     It is important for the West to remember that the divisions in Iraq that are currently fighting are not the same kinds of divisions we see in the West. Yes, the fighters on both sides of the conflict represent divergent political thought, but that political though is derived from a far more deep seated divergence in religious belief. The current conflict in Iraq is one of Shiite versus Sunni, and represents a war that has existed within Islam for practically as long as Islam has existed.

     Why is this distinction important? It is important because the sectarian war Iraq faces will not be resolved by political means. This is a war being fought between religious zealots who would like to stamp out their opponent’s faith, not defeat their political ideology. This war is being fought by people who believe that their opponents are not Muslim because they do not believe what their attackers believe.

     That is why repeated attacks on police stations, military bases, and government buildings have, relatively speaking, brought little response from the Iraqi people, but the attack on a holy shrine of Shiite Islam has brought reckoning. It may even be arguable that the average Muslim Iraqi cares little for politics and everything for the politics of religion.

     It is extremely important to understand the nature of this conflict because it is a conflict wider than Iraq. It pits the outnumbered and infinitely fanatical Shiites of southern Iraq and Iran against the predominantly Sunni rest of Islam. If the current violence within Iraq degenerates into a wider conflict, it is hard to see how that conflict will not degenerate to include adherents to each side from the wider Muslim world. Indeed, this is a conflict that could stretch from Syria to Indonesia before it is done.

     This is not to say that the conflict will spread like this, but within Iraq we see the balancing of the forces of these two great divisions of Islam pressed against each other like the lines of a slip-fault. As anyone living in such an earthquake prone region knows, quakes from such faults can strike without warning and can reverberate for long distances.

     What is the solution to such a conflict? Ultimately, there is none. If two sides of a religious war decide to fight, there is no way for any who do not share such a view to intervene. At best, all that can be done is to contain the damage. While Iraq has been liberated from the political sway of Saddam Hussein, it has not been liberated from the hatred and distrust between Sunnis and Shiites, and there is no liberation within Islam that can accomplish that feat. If the Shiites and Sunnis of Iraq decide to fight, war will come.

DLH