The first batch of polls will close starting around:
- 6PM (ET): Indiana, Kentucky
- 7PM: Georgia, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia
- 7:30PM: Ohio, West Virginia
In that list, Indiana, Georgia, Ohio, and Virginia are currently battleground states.
I really don’t think that Indiana is as unsure as the polls show, but I suppose it is still possible for the state to break for Obama, especially given the recent urbanization in that state. Even still, I am predicting this state for McCain.
I have not followed the issues in Georgia especially closely, but from what I have read to date, I believe it is possible for this state to go for Obama. Central to this belief is the large number of expatriates in cities like Atlanta and a large black population expected to break heavily for Obama.
Ah, Ohio, where blue collar union workers and an education mafia war against grey collar professionals and rural conservatives for the color of the state. Columbus and Cleveland will go for Obama. Cincinnati will go for McCain. The battle will be decided in places like Dayton and Wilmington, and frankly what that decision might be is anyone’s guess. My guess is that Ohio will keep a lot of people awake late tonight.
Like Ohio, Virginia is a mix of urban liberal versus rural conservative. Combine that with a decided epicenter of expatriate liberalism as one gets closer to DC, and it is possible for Virginia to go for Obama, but only because Virginia now is not the Virginia that was.