Here’s what I think will happen tonight based on the states currently labeled “toss-ups” on the RealClearPolitics electoral map:
Arizona
Come on? This state is in play? McCain.
Florida
Florida is a test case for Obama. I think that, if he can win Hispanic voters in that state, he wins. I think the more conservative parts of the state make the deal a hard one for him to close. Overall, I think Florida will be Y2K close, but I call that state for McCain by a hair.
Georgia
I think expatriate and black demographics are strong for Obama in Georgia like they are in North Carolina. I think this state goes for Obama.
Indiana
I don’t really think this state is in play. I call Indiana for McCain.
Missouri
Missouri is a difficult state to read and it goes either way. I think Missouri could be very close, but I think Obama wins.
Montana
This state is not really in play. This state goes for McCain
North Carolina
Like Georgia, I think demographics favor Obama, and he’s who I think gets this state.
North Dakota
Again, this state is not in play and goes McCain.
Ohio
Who knows. Ohio is a strange state that I think is split right down the middle politically. I think who wins Ohio will come down to partisian turnout in precincts like the one I voted in today in Dayton. I think Ohio will be too close to call tonight, but since I want one state to call completely on hope, I call Ohio for McCain.
Virginia
I think Virginia is as close of a call as Florida or Ohio, but in the end I think it still goes McCain by a hair.
There are a few states not labeled “toss-ups” that I think bear watching:
Colorado
I think Colorado could still go McCain in spite of stronger polling for Obama. It’s interesting to note that McCain held a rally there today.
Nevada
I think Nevada is still wide open and I would not be surprised if it broke McCain
New Mexico
As with Nevada, I think there is potential for McCain in New Mexico
Pennsylvania
If Obama loses Pennsylvania, he can blame it on one man: John Murtha. Call it the political blunder of the century so far, but I think McCain could still close the deal in the Keystone State.
Wisconsin
All of the polling shows Obama winning Wisconsin, but I know the state to be one with a split personality. Such disorders are often unpredictable. Watch for Wisconsin to be close.
All things being equal, I think the election ends up Obama 309, McCain 229. The real result is anyone’s guess.
