The undecided vote

An AP poll shows that 14 percent of likely voters remain undecided four days before the election, according to Fox News.

If 14 percent of likely voters remain undecided, then how can anyone claim that the current polling, which shows Obama leading by an average of 6 percent according to RealClearPolitics, shows anything about the upcoming election? Perhaps all these average show is that people who have already decided to vote for Obama have done so in far greater numbers than people who have decided to vote for McCain.

I think this huge number of undecided voters, 17 million people if one uses the 122 million voters from 2004, represents an inherent weakness in the Obama campaign. Huge numbers of people, typically independent voters with concerns independent of the parties’ focuses, are unsure about Obama because they are uncomfortable with his national security and economic views.

Unfortunately, these people are also unsure about McCain, for reasons I completely understand. I would bet they see McCain as a clear national security winner, but they dislike his historical stances on things like immigration reform. Part of the problem is that McCain’s economic platform is tepid at best. He is running against Obama’s plan instead of for his own.

I think all of these factors show something I have been saying since Obama was first selected as the Democrat nominee: if the economy is the predominant issue on Nov. 4, Obama wins, but if world events dominate that day, McCain wins. The only thing left for supporters of McCain to do in the next four days is remind people that there is more going on in the world than a weak economy. If enough of that 14 percent of undecided voters see that, McCain wins.


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