8:45 a.m.: Some thoughts on polling

It has been pretty clear from the past few years that the basic polling model most pollsters are using is fundamentally flawed. Many political polls, especially in this election cycle, have delivered results that do not reflect the final outcome, hence my continued hope that McCain can win.

An example of what I am talking about is the discrepancy between the national polls and the battleground state polls. The national polls all show Obama winning by 3 to 14 percent over McCain. Yet, in many battleground states, Obama is only ahead by 2 or 3 percent over John McCain–well within the margin of error–with 7 to 10 percent of the electorate in those states still undecided as of yesterday.

Looking at the states where the latter is true–Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Virginia–it is easy to see how a tight race that delivers these states to McCain also delivers McCain the White House. That’s where I think the national polling is flawed, because it is possible for that very scenario to occur.


This entry was posted in Elections, Government, Politics, Voting and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *